Welcome back to the theater of the absurd, where today’s performance features the State Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange of Turkmenistan—a place where the 'invisible hand' of the market is usually wearing a government-issued glove.

The latest dispatch from Ashgabat tells us that agriculture is 'driving growth.' Isn’t that a charming, pastoral image? While the petrochemical and light industry sectors are apparently taking a well-deserved nap—or, more accurately, a 'slight decline'—the humble farmer is supposedly carrying the weight of the national economy on a tractor that likely predates the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Let’s look through the PR fog, shall we? When a state that sits on the world’s fourth-largest reserve of natural gas starts bragging about its exchange trading being 'led' by agricultural quotations, it’s not a sign of a burgeoning green revolution. It’s a sign that the big-ticket items—the stuff that actually keeps the lights on and the elite in luxury sedans—aren't moving the needle. It’s the economic equivalent of a billionaire losing his shirt at the casino but bragging that he found a twenty-dollar bill in his coat pocket on the way out.

The 'State Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange' is a wonderful euphemism. It’s less a marketplace and more a curated gallery where the government displays the numbers it wants you to see. Petrochemicals are down? Don’t worry about the global energy flux or crumbling infrastructure; look at this lovely wheat! Look at the cotton! It’s 'growth,' they say, with the kind of straight face you only find in autocracies or high-stakes poker games.

In reality, this is about diversification by necessity, wrapped in the shiny foil of a success story. They’re pivoting the narrative because the gas money is getting complicated and the 'light industry'—which is usually a polite way of saying 'textiles no one is buying'—is stalling. So, they lean on the land. It’s grounded, it’s literal, and it’s very hard for a spreadsheet to lie about a sack of grain, though God knows they’ll try. Stay cynical, folks. The harvest might be up, but the math is still being cooked.