So, here we go again. Another election, another moment where the world holds its breath, and another moment where reality slaps everyone in the face. In Thailand, the story was supposed to be different this time. If you listened to the experts—those people in suits who love charts and graphs—you would have thought a big change was coming. The polls said the reformist People’s Party was going to sweep in and clean house. They said the people were tired of the old ways. They said the wind was blowing in a new direction.

But wind is invisible, and so are the hopes of the voters. The ruling conservatives have claimed victory. The Prime Minister is staying put. The status quo, which is a fancy way of saying "the same old mess," is not going anywhere. It is almost funny, in a dark way, how surprised everyone acts. It is like watching a horror movie where the teenagers split up to investigate a noise. You know exactly what is going to happen, but you still hope maybe this time, the monster trips and falls. The monster never falls. The monster usually wins the election.

Let’s talk about these opinion polls for a moment. We treat them like they are crystal balls. We look at the numbers and think they tell us the future. But numbers lie. Or rather, people lie to the people asking for the numbers. Or maybe, just maybe, the system is designed so that the numbers don't actually matter as much as we think. The conservatives were supposed to be trailing. They were supposed to be the unpopular old guard holding onto the past. Instead, they are "well ahead" of their rivals. It is a classic magic trick. Look at this hand over here—the polls, the excitement, the young people shouting for change—while the other hand quietly locks the door and pockets the key.

The reformist party, the People’s Party, must be feeling quite sick right now. They played the game. They had the energy. They probably had very nice posters and catchy slogans about fixing the country. They sold hope. Hope is a very expensive product that usually turns out to be worthless once you take it out of the box. They thought that because people *said* they wanted change, they would actually *get* change. That is adorable. It is the kind of innocence you usually lose after your first heartbreak. Welcome to the real world, where power does not like to move.

On the other side, we have the conservatives. They defied the odds. That is how the news writes it. "Defied." It makes them sound like heroes overcoming a dragon. In reality, they are just the heavy furniture in the living room that nobody has the strength to move. They didn't really have to do anything special. They just had to be there. They relied on the fact that when push comes to shove, systems protect themselves. The Prime Minister claiming victory isn't a triumph of the will; it is just business as usual. It is the manager telling the employees that the beatings will continue until morale improves.

This whole event is a perfect example of the theater of politics. We are the audience. We buy our tickets, we sit in the seats, and we cheer for our favorite actors. We think that if we cheer loud enough, the ending of the play will change. But the script was written a long time ago. The actors know their lines. The ruling party knows how to rule. That is literally their job description. Expecting them to just pack up their boxes and leave because a few surveys said they were unpopular is silly.

It is easy to blame the voters, isn't it? Maybe they got scared at the last minute. Maybe they decided the devil they know is better than the devil they don't. Humans are creatures of habit. We say we want excitement, but mostly we just want to know that the bus will show up tomorrow. The conservatives offer boring predictability. The reformists offered a giant question mark. When you are worried about your job or your dinner, the giant question mark looks scary. So, the voters retreat to safety, and the cycle repeats.

So, spare a thought for the optimists today. They are having a rough morning. They woke up thinking the world had shifted on its axis, only to find out the earth is still spinning the exact same way. The conservatives are in charge. The polls were wrong. The experts look foolish. And somewhere, in a nice office, the old guard is laughing while drinking tea, wondering why anyone ever doubted them. Same time next election? I am sure it will be different then. Sure it will.