One year into the second coming of the Orange Alchemist, and the lead is still refusing to turn into gold. Donald Trump’s trade policy—a term I use loosely, as one might describe the chaotic splashing of a drowning man as 'swimming'—is less a coherent economic strategy and more a collection of grievances shouted into a megaphone at a bewildered world. We are currently marking the one-year anniversary of Trump 2.0, a period defined by the weaponization of the tariff, a blunt-force instrument that the President handles with all the grace of a toddler with a meat tenderizer.

Gerald Friedman, an economist who presumably still possesses some vestigial shred of hope for human rationality, has been tasked with walking RFI through the debris of this administration’s economic theater. The reality, as Friedman observes, is a jarring disconnect between the populist rhetoric of 'refunds' and the cold, hard math of the checkout line. The administration has been peddling the fantasy that tariffs are a magical revenue stream—a 'refund' from the world to the American people. It is a spectacular piece of gaslighting. In reality, these tariffs are a self-inflicted tax on the very peasants who cheered for them. It is the economic equivalent of hitting oneself in the face with a brick and then demanding the brick pay for the reconstructive surgery. The cost is passed directly to the consumer, but in our current post-truth landscape, a rising price tag on a gallon of milk is somehow reimagined as a patriotic sacrifice in the holy war against 'globalism.'

Trump’s 'tough talk' with allies has been the cornerstone of this first year. It’s a fascinating spectacle of transactional thuggery. Diplomacy has been replaced by a protection racket. You want defense? Pay up. You want trade? Give us a tribute. The Left, of course, responds with their usual performative fainting spells, clutching their collective pearls while offering zero viable alternatives beyond 'returning to the status quo'—a status quo that was already a rotting carcass of neoliberal failure. Meanwhile, the Right celebrates every new trade barrier as a blow to the 'deep state,' blissfully unaware that they are merely building a taller wall around their own dwindling purchasing power. Both sides are locked in a symbiotic dance of idiocy, fueled by a fundamental misunderstanding of how the world actually functions.

The rhetoric of the 'tariff-funded refund' is perhaps the most audacious grift of the year. It presents the government as a benevolent robin hood, when in fact it is acting as a middleman in a heist. By taxing imports from China, Europe, and Mexico, the administration isn’t 'winning'—it’s merely rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and charging the passengers for the privilege of a better view of the iceberg. Friedman’s analysis highlights the grim reality: these policies don't bring back the manufacturing jobs of 1954; they just make the cheap plastic junk of 2025 more expensive for the people who can least afford the increase.

And let’s look at the 'allies.' The UK, the EU, and the Pacific partners are treated not as strategic collaborators, but as marks in a long con. The administration’s approach to international relations is indistinguishable from a mob boss shaking down a local deli owner. It’s 'America First' in the same way a black hole is 'gravity first'—it consumes everything in its proximity until there’s nothing left but a void. The tragicomedy here is that the rest of the world is slowly learning to stop looking to the US for leadership and is instead looking for the nearest exit.

One year in, the state of the US economy is a masterclass in the triumph of branding over substance. We are told the economy is 'roaring' because the stock market—a volatile graph of rich people's feelings—is ticking upward, while the average citizen is one car repair away from homelessness. Trump 2.0 has successfully convinced half the country that their financial pain is a victory and the other half that the end of the world is scheduled for next Tuesday. In reality, we are just watching the slow, grinding machinery of an empire in decline, led by a man who thinks a trade deficit is a personal insult and an opposition that thinks a hashtag is a policy. It’s a pathetic display, and quite frankly, the only thing more exhausting than the rhetoric is the fact that people still find it surprising.